Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Mon Oct 12?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 65° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 84° against the CLT observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 55° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 55–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 79° | 65° | 76° | — | 72° | — | — | 65–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 78° | 74° | 76° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–78° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 76° | 71° | 73° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 78° | 78° | 77° | — | 82° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 79° | 79° | — | 83° | — | — | 79–83° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 67° | 77° | 69° | 74° | 62° | — | — | 62–77° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 68° | 64° | 76° | 79° | 80° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 76° | 79° | 78° | 66° | 80° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 86° | 80° | 78° | 74° | 74° | 84° | 77° | 74–86° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 81° | 80° | 78° | 76° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 76–81° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 82° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 78° | 83° | 80° | 77–83° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 81° | 82° | 80° | 79° | 81° | 83° | 80° | 79–83° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 82° | 84° | 79° | 78° | 81° | 82° | 80° | 78–84° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 81° | 83° | 78° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 78–83° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.