Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Oct 11?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 63° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 78° against the CLT observations, with 1.14 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 65° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 65–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 78° | 63° | 63° | — | 67° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 78° | 76° | 66° | — | 68° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 75° | 76° | 64° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 76° | 75° | 76° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–76° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 69° | 66° | 68° | — | 79° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 75° | 62° | 70° | 79° | 83° | — | — | 62–83° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 68° | 74° | 67° | 71° | 66° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 69° | 68° | 69° | 72° | 67° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 71° | 64° | 69° | 67° | 69° | 70° | 71° | 64–71° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 73° | 72° | 78° | 66° | 71° | 77° | 75° | 66–78° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 75° | 71° | 71° | 74° | 76° | 76° | 75° | 71–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 72° | 71° | 78° | 73° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 71–78° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 75° | 76° | 71° | 75° | 72° | 76° | 73° | 71–76° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 73° | 73° | 73° | 76° | 73° | 74° | 77° | 73–77° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.