Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Oct 10?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sat Oct 10 high anywhere from 67° to 72°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 70° against the CLT observations, with 1.49 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-25 | — | 55° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 55–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-26 | 67° | 72° | 69° | — | 69° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 13d · 2026-09-27 | 71° | 77° | 61° | — | 66° | — | — | 61–77° |
| 12d · 2026-09-28 | 74° | 78° | 63° | — | 72° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 11d · 2026-09-29 | 78° | 74° | 70° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 83° | 72° | — | 74° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 9d · 2026-10-01 | 79° | 73° | 77° | 76° | 79° | — | — | 73–79° |
| 8d · 2026-10-02 | 82° | 73° | 79° | 76° | 87° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 7d · 2026-10-03 | 81° | 79° | 78° | 77° | 78° | — | — | 77–81° |
| 6d · 2026-10-04 | 81° | 79° | 76° | 73° | 76° | 67° | 75° | 67–81° |
| 5d · 2026-10-05 | 66° | 73° | 76° | 73° | 64° | 71° | 69° | 64–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-06 | 70° | 64° | 76° | 74° | 76° | 67° | 72° | 64–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-07 | 68° | 64° | 73° | 68° | 65° | 64° | 66° | 64–73° |
| 2d · 2026-10-08 | 67° | 64° | 66° | 68° | 67° | 69° | 66° | 64–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 65° | 67° | 70° | 68° | 68° | 69° | 65–70° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.