Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Fri Oct 9?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 62° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 76° against the CLT observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 53° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 53–75° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 77° | 62° | 73° | — | 79° | — | — | 62–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 72° | 70° | 79° | — | 74° | — | — | 70–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 72° | 72° | 68° | — | 57° | — | — | 57–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 73° | 77° | 79° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 79° | 76° | 78° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 83° | 74° | 76° | 73° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 78° | 79° | 78° | 78° | 83° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 84° | 83° | 79° | 79° | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 84° | 84° | 81° | 80° | 86° | 73° | 71° | 71–86° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 84° | 84° | 82° | 77° | 79° | 76° | 79° | 76–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 80° | 83° | 84° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 75–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 78° | 78° | 81° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 73° | 73–81° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 78° | 77° | 78° | 75° | 77° | 74° | 75° | 74–78° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 78° | 76° | 76° | 80° | 78° | 74° | 75° | 74–80° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.