Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Thu Oct 8?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Thu Oct 8 high anywhere from 53° to 68°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 85° against the CLT observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-23 | — | 77° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-24 | 65° | 53° | 67° | — | 68° | — | — | 53–68° |
| 13d · 2026-09-25 | 74° | 68° | 77° | — | 81° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-26 | 75° | 67° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-27 | 78° | 73° | 81° | — | 62° | — | — | 62–81° |
| 10d · 2026-09-28 | 71° | 71° | 72° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–72° |
| 9d · 2026-09-29 | 76° | 77° | 73° | 68° | 75° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 78° | 76° | 70° | 79° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 7d · 2026-10-01 | 76° | 78° | 72° | 77° | 78° | — | — | 72–78° |
| 6d · 2026-10-02 | 81° | 78° | 80° | 77° | 78° | 79° | 74° | 74–81° |
| 5d · 2026-10-03 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 80° | 87° | 79° | 78° | 78–87° |
| 4d · 2026-10-04 | 84° | 83° | 82° | 83° | 85° | 81° | 78° | 78–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-05 | 84° | 83° | 84° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 76° | 76–84° |
| 2d · 2026-10-06 | 84° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 80° | 80–84° |
| 1d · 2026-10-07 | 85° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 83° | 84° | 81° | 81–85° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.