Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Oct 6?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 65° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 74° against the CLT observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 60° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 60–62° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 80° | 70° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 65° | 74° | 72° | — | 72° | — | — | 65–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 67° | 86° | 74° | — | 79° | — | — | 67–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 85° | 68° | — | 87° | — | — | 68–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 71° | 63° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 69° | 64° | 89° | 64° | 76° | — | — | 64–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 65° | 70° | 68° | 63° | 72° | — | — | 63–72° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 68° | 66° | 68° | 66° | 66° | — | — | 66–68° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 69° | 66° | 68° | 64° | 67° | 66° | 68° | 64–69° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 70° | 67° | 69° | 65° | 71° | 70° | 70° | 65–71° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 71° | 69° | 71° | 67° | 72° | 69° | 70° | 67–72° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 72° | 73° | 72° | 72° | 77° | 70° | 72° | 70–77° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 73° | 73° | 74° | 76° | 70° | 71° | 70–76° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 73° | 74° | 73° | 76° | 75° | 71° | 71° | 71–76° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.