Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Oct 4?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 70° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 69° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.5°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 73° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 73–78° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 76° | 70° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 77° | 81° | 77° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 73° | 82° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 82° | 86° | 75° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 72° | 83° | 91° | — | 85° | — | — | 72–91° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 76° | 89° | 80° | 78° | 84° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 70° | 82° | 87° | 74° | 75° | — | — | 70–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 78° | 78° | 77° | 81° | 55° | — | — | 55–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 71° | 69° | 71° | 82° | 71° | 61° | 81° | 61–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 66° | 63° | 65° | 66° | 65° | 82° | 70° | 63–82° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 68° | 61° | 69° | 70° | 65° | 64° | 70° | 61–70° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 66° | 64° | 71° | 65° | 69° | 66° | 74° | 64–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 66° | 66° | 72° | 67° | 65° | 65° | 71° | 65–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 66° | 66° | 74° | 70° | 66° | 65° | 72° | 65–74° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.