Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Fri Oct 2?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 69° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 89° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 68° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 84° | 78° | 72° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 80° | 72° | 80° | — | 80° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 78° | 65° | 76° | — | 90° | — | — | 65–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 83° | 82° | 83° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 76° | 84° | 79° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 88° | 90° | 82° | 82° | 70° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 86° | 90° | 91° | 84° | 87° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 88° | 87° | 89° | 82° | 88° | — | — | 82–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 89° | 87° | 93° | 88° | 90° | 84° | 85° | 84–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 87° | 86° | 93° | 88° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 84–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 86° | 88° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 85° | 85–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 87° | 88° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 86° | 85° | 85–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 87° | 88° | 89° | 88° | 89° | 87° | 84° | 84–89° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 87° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 89° | 87° | 83° | 83–89° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.