Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Thu Oct 1?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 63° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 86° against the CLT observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 70° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 74° | 63° | 81° | — | 82° | — | — | 63–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 83° | 79° | 70° | — | 84° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 81° | 63° | 79° | — | 75° | — | — | 63–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 77° | 75° | 80° | — | 87° | — | — | 75–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 80° | 82° | 82° | — | 82° | — | — | 80–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 81° | 84° | 81° | 80° | 83° | — | — | 80–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 86° | 88° | 88° | 83° | 87° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 85° | 89° | 89° | 85° | 88° | — | — | 85–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 86° | 87° | 86° | 84° | 90° | 83° | 80° | 80–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 86° | 86° | 87° | 85° | 88° | 84° | 82° | 82–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 86° | 86° | 88° | 85° | 87° | 85° | 82° | 82–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 85° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 88° | 85° | 84° | 84–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 85° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 87° | 84° | 84° | 84–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 85° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 83° | 83–86° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.