Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Sep 27?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 74° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the CLT observations — clear.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | — | 73° | — | — | 63° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 85° | 81° | 82° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 83° | 83° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 78° | 89° | 73° | — | 94° | — | — | 73–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 74° | 79° | 70° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 79° | 78° | 78° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 75° | 73° | 74° | 77° | — | — | 73–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 78° | 73° | 73° | 75° | 76° | — | — | 73–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 76° | 78° | 76° | 79° | 79° | — | — | 76–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 78° | 78° | 76° | 77° | 81° | 78° | 75° | 75–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 78° | 79° | 77° | 73° | 81° | 78° | 75° | 73–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 78° | 79° | 79° | 76° | 80° | 78° | 77° | 76–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 77° | 76° | 76–80° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 79° | 81° | 78° | 79° | 81° | 78° | 76° | 76–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 79° | 76° | 76–81° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.