Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Sep 26?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 71° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 80° against the CLT observations — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-11 | — | 71° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 71–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-12 | 87° | 76° | 81° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-13 | 90° | 82° | 79° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-14 | 80° | 84° | 76° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-15 | 83° | 86° | 80° | — | 89° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-16 | 75° | 78° | 75° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-17 | 79° | 74° | 74° | 76° | 76° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 8d · 2026-09-18 | 76° | 78° | 71° | 70° | 77° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-19 | 76° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 76° | — | — | 74–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-20 | 77° | 75° | 76° | 74° | 81° | 76° | 70° | 70–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-21 | 77° | 77° | 76° | 73° | 80° | 79° | 74° | 73–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-22 | 78° | 78° | 73° | 73° | 77° | 79° | 74° | 73–79° |
| 3d · 2026-09-23 | 77° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 74–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-24 | 78° | 79° | 76° | 75° | 80° | 76° | 74° | 74–80° |
| 1d · 2026-09-25 | 78° | 79° | 76° | 80° | 81° | 77° | 76° | 76–81° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.