Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Fri Sep 25?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 64° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 75° against the CLT observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 76° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 82° | 64° | 71° | — | 86° | — | — | 64–86° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 81° | 79° | 72° | — | 81° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 88° | 83° | 77° | — | 81° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 74° | 79° | 75° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 81° | 84° | 83° | — | 88° | — | — | 81–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 77° | 78° | 76° | 76° | 86° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 74° | 67° | 76° | 77° | 79° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 72° | 78° | 70° | 74° | 77° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 73° | 73° | 71° | 73° | 76° | 72° | 70° | 70–76° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 72° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 75° | 75° | 69° | 69–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 72° | 75° | 70° | 70° | 75° | 74° | 69° | 69–75° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 74° | 75° | 69° | 69° | 74° | 78° | 68° | 68–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 72° | 72° | 72° | 68° | 75° | 73° | 72° | 68–75° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 72° | 73° | 71° | 73° | 76° | 72° | 71° | 71–76° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.