Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Wed Sep 23?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 70° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 66° against the CLT observations, with 0.77 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 73° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 73–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 71° | 70° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 65° | 71° | 73° | — | 77° | — | — | 65–77° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 73° | 92° | — | 83° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 86° | 85° | 81° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 78° | 74° | 92° | — | 90° | — | — | 74–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 73° | 67° | 69° | 67° | 76° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 74° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 85° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 78° | 76° | 82° | 73° | 76° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 72° | 70° | 83° | 76° | 73° | 76° | 80° | 70–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 71° | 67° | 69° | 69° | 74° | 70° | 70° | 67–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 70° | 66° | 70° | 70° | 68° | 70° | 70° | 66–70° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 69° | 66° | 70° | 69° | 68° | 71° | 71° | 66–71° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 68° | 67° | 70° | 70° | 67° | 72° | 70° | 67–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 67° | 64° | 70° | 69° | 64° | 65° | 70° | 64–70° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.