Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Mon Sep 21?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 74° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 92° against the CLT observations, with 0.05 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 72° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 72–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 74° | 76° | 92° | — | 80° | — | — | 74–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 63° | 88° | 89° | — | 94° | — | — | 63–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 82° | 70° | 73° | — | 81° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 74° | 76° | 78° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 71° | 67° | 100° | — | 70° | — | — | 67–100° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 88° | 72° | 84° | 86° | 78° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 91° | 77° | 95° | 88° | 94° | — | — | 77–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 90° | 79° | 91° | 92° | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 90° | 80° | 85° | 89° | 91° | 88° | 80° | 80–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 90° | 85° | 93° | 89° | 94° | 90° | 78° | 78–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 91° | 88° | 89° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 87° | 87–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 90° | 91° | 86° | 92° | 94° | 88° | 89° | 86–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 91° | 91° | 90° | 91° | 94° | 90° | 90° | 90–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 90° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 94° | 90° | 90° | 90–94° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.