Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Sep 19?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 74° to 86°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 90° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 81° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 85° | 76° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 74° | 86° | 82° | — | 79° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 78° | 85° | — | 79° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 92° | 85° | 72° | — | 74° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 81° | 88° | 96° | — | 90° | — | — | 81–96° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 92° | 73° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 89° | 80° | 96° | 92° | 87° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 85° | 88° | 90° | 91° | 84° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 87° | 89° | 94° | 91° | 83° | 90° | — | 83–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 86° | 92° | 95° | 91° | 94° | 83° | 85° | 83–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 87° | 83° | 88° | 74° | 84° | 83° | 81° | 74–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 84° | 81° | 85° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 80–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 84° | 92° | 84° | 87° | 81° | 84° | 81–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 89° | 86° | 89° | 89° | 84° | 83° | 86° | 83–89° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 89° | 87° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 87° | 87° | 87–92° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.