Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Fri Sep 18?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 77° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 96° against the CLT observations, with 0.07 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 76° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | 90° | 82° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 91° | 77° | 94° | — | 88° | — | — | 77–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 89° | 72° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 87° | 69° | 80° | — | 82° | — | — | 69–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 90° | 87° | 81° | — | 96° | — | — | 81–96° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 86° | 93° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 90° | 90° | 93° | 91° | 84° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 93° | 92° | 95° | 91° | 84° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 91° | 87° | 88° | 89° | 94° | 92° | — | 87–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 95° | 89° | 98° | 91° | 84° | 92° | 87° | 84–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 94° | 89° | 95° | 90° | 93° | 91° | 87° | 87–95° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 94° | 93° | 97° | 92° | 94° | 89° | 87° | 87–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 92° | 93° | 96° | 93° | 90° | 92° | 86° | 86–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 94° | 94° | 97° | 95° | 97° | 93° | 93° | 93–97° |
| 0d · 2026-09-18 | 95° | 96° | 95° | 97° | 96° | 93° | 93° | 93–97° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.