Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Thu Sep 17?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 80° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 91° against the CLT observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-02 | — | 78° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 14d · 2026-09-03 | 87° | 72° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 13d · 2026-09-04 | 90° | 80° | 87° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 12d · 2026-09-05 | 88° | 89° | 87° | — | 92° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-06 | 81° | 88° | 75° | — | 79° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-07 | 90° | 76° | 81° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-08 | 90° | 83° | 95° | — | 89° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-09 | 85° | 85° | 89° | 89° | 96° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-10 | 86° | 90° | 89° | 87° | 94° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-11 | 90° | 88° | 89° | 91° | 88° | 88° | — | 88–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-12 | 90° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 88° | 83° | 83–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-13 | 90° | 86° | 92° | 87° | 85° | 85° | 88° | 85–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-14 | 90° | 86° | 89° | 87° | 89° | 84° | 85° | 84–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-15 | 90° | 87° | 94° | 90° | 92° | 89° | 87° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-16 | 90° | 89° | 93° | 90° | 93° | 91° | 87° | 87–93° |
| 0d · 2026-09-17 | 91° | 91° | 94° | 90° | 93° | 91° | 88° | 88–94° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.