Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Sep 15?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 78° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 85° against the CLT observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. UKMO ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 92° | — | — | 93° | — | — | 92–93° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 95° | 92° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 92–95° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 95° | 78° | 95° | — | 93° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 87° | 94° | 77° | — | 102° | — | — | 77–102° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 76° | 95° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–95° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 89° | 84° | — | 95° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 86° | 93° | — | 87° | — | — | 83–93° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 90° | 89° | 93° | 83° | 98° | — | — | 83–98° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 77° | 91° | 73° | 97° | — | — | 73–97° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 82° | 90° | 88° | 97° | 89° | — | 80–97° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 81° | 88° | 87° | 82° | 91° | 81° | 84° | 81–91° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 81° | 79° | 86° | 84° | 86° | 81° | 83° | 79–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 82° | 79° | 85° | 78° | 85° | 80° | 82° | 78–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 84° | 80° | 89° | 83° | 85° | 80° | 82° | 80–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 83° | 82° | 87° | 86° | 87° | 82° | 82° | 82–87° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 82° | 83° | 88° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 80° | 80–88° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.