Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Sep 12?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 70° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 89° against the CLT observations, with 1.46 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 81° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 81–82° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 93° | 90° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 88–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 77° | 83° | 70° | — | 78° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 89° | 88° | 89° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 94° | 88° | 104° | — | 98° | — | — | 88–104° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 94° | 91° | 94° | — | 94° | — | — | 91–94° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 81° | 91° | 88° | — | 90° | — | — | 81–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 90° | 78° | 93° | 76° | — | — | 76–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 88° | 88° | 88° | 78° | 87° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 82° | 86° | 86° | 91° | 87° | — | 82–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 87° | 85° | 93° | 75° | 80° | 79° | 86° | 75–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 81° | 84° | 91° | 76° | 93° | 83° | 86° | 76–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 82° | 81° | 84° | 85° | 93° | 84° | 85° | 81–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 84° | 84° | 89° | 85° | 94° | 80° | 89° | 80–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 84° | 83° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 83° | 80° | 80–88° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 82° | 83° | 83° | 90° | 88° | 83° | 82° | 82–90° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.