Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Fri Sep 11?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 85° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 97° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.8°. UKMO ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | — | 90° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 87° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 69–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 85° | 91° | — | 88° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 90° | 88° | 71° | — | 88° | — | — | 71–90° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 89° | 87° | 99° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 83° | 101° | — | 101° | — | — | 83–101° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 95° | 93° | 94° | — | 97° | — | — | 93–97° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 90° | 95° | 98° | 92° | 99° | — | — | 90–99° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 83° | 85° | 90° | 94° | 93° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 86° | 90° | 90° | 85° | 84° | 87° | — | 84–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 85° | 86° | 83° | 94° | 84° | 89° | 83–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 92° | 88° | 97° | 76° | 96° | 83° | 87° | 76–97° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 91° | 86° | 95° | 91° | 98° | 85° | 90° | 85–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 93° | 93° | 96° | 94° | 96° | 92° | 90° | 90–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 93° | 94° | 96° | 95° | 94° | 95° | 92° | 92–96° |
| 0d · 2026-09-11 | 95° | 95° | 95° | 94° | 95° | 94° | 91° | 91–95° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.