Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Thu Sep 10?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 86° to 107°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 94° against the CLT observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 92° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 92–95° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 92° | 87° | — | 107° | — | — | 86–107° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 85° | 84° | 96° | — | 89° | — | — | 84–96° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 84° | 99° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–99° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 85° | 105° | — | 86° | — | — | 85–105° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 89° | 84° | 96° | — | 92° | — | — | 84–96° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 94° | 92° | 99° | 89° | 93° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 93° | 93° | 96° | 90° | 99° | — | — | 90–99° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 92° | 89° | 96° | 92° | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 91° | 93° | 90° | 96° | 92° | 91° | 89–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 89° | 94° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 87–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 91° | 89° | 88° | 87° | 91° | 80° | 87° | 80–91° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 91° | 91° | 88° | 90° | 94° | 90° | 85° | 85–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 91° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 93° | 89° | 90° | 89–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 92° | 92° | 92° | 93° | 93° | 91° | 90° | 90–93° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.