Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Sep 8?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 86° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 87° against the CLT observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-24 | — | 82° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 82–84° |
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 88° | 87° | — | 97° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 87° | 86° | — | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 96° | 98° | — | 99° | — | — | 88–99° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 80° | 93° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 81° | 83° | — | 95° | — | — | 81–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 85° | 92° | 85° | 81° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 82° | 92° | 82° | 85° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 85° | 88° | 88° | 88° | — | — | 85–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 87° | 84° | 89° | 84° | 85° | 86° | 85° | 84–89° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 84–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 84° | 88° | 83° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 83–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 84° | 83° | 86° | 83° | 86° | 83° | 83° | 83–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 84° | 85° | 83° | 87° | 84° | 84° | 83–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 86° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 85° | 83° | 83–88° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.