Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Mon Sep 7?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 84° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 85° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 85° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 83–85° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 81° | 88° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 84° | 90° | — | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 93° | 78° | 87° | — | 91° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 90° | 99° | 100° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–100° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 92° | 89° | — | 95° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 82° | 93° | 86° | — | 96° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 82° | 83° | 79° | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 83° | — | — | 80–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 85° | 88° | 76° | 88° | 81° | — | 76–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 83° | 84° | 79° | 85° | 83° | 83° | 79–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 82° | 82° | 83° | 75° | 84° | 83° | 83° | 75–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 83° | 81° | 84° | 78° | 87° | 84° | 83° | 78–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 79° | 80° | 87° | 81° | 87° | 83° | 83° | 79–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 78° | 78° | 74° | 86° | 78° | 77° | 81° | 74–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 83° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 82° | 82–86° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.