Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Sep 6?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 84° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 87° against the CLT observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 88° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 97° | 96° | 84° | — | 91° | — | — | 84–97° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 88° | 80° | 101° | — | 82° | — | — | 80–101° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 91° | 93° | 93° | — | 96° | — | — | 91–96° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 81° | 96° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–96° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 99° | 91° | — | 107° | — | — | 86–107° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 87° | 89° | 90° | 86° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 91° | 81° | 96° | 80° | 93° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 77° | 86° | 83° | 86° | 90° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 84° | 92° | 80° | 85° | 82° | 90° | 80–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 83° | 86° | 83° | 80° | 74° | 85° | 91° | 74–91° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 89° | 91° | 83° | 92° | 87° | 87° | 83–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 87° | 89° | 92° | 89° | 97° | 88° | 95° | 87–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 87° | 90° | 88° | 85° | 94° | 84° | 85° | 84–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 91° | 90° | 90° | 93° | 85° | 83° | 83–93° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.