Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Fri Sep 4?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 68° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 97° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-21 | 85° | 68° | 95° | — | 100° | — | — | 68–100° |
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 90° | 85° | 87° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 96° | 96° | 96° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–96° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 89° | 91° | 100° | — | 102° | — | — | 89–102° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 93° | 93° | 93° | — | 96° | — | — | 93–96° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 96° | 98° | 95° | 98° | — | — | 92–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 92° | 98° | 90° | 95° | 104° | — | — | 90–104° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 97° | 94° | 91° | 102° | — | — | 90–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 92° | 97° | 101° | 96° | 99° | 102° | 92° | 92–102° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 94° | 98° | 94° | 94° | 101° | 99° | 93° | 93–101° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 97° | 98° | 104° | 97° | 99° | 97° | 95° | 95–104° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 96° | 98° | 101° | 97° | 98° | 97° | 92° | 92–101° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 98° | 100° | 96° | 100° | 96° | 95° | 95–100° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 96° | 98° | 97° | 95° | 100° | 95° | 96° | 95–100° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.