Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Aug 30?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
9 days out, 5 models put Charlotte's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 76° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 86° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-21 | 84° | 91° | 80° | 76° | 89° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 86° | 82° | 86° | 83° | 96° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 84° | 90° | 89° | 79° | 93° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 87° | 85° | 90° | 82° | 89° | 89° | 83° | 82–90° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 86° | 87° | 75° | 92° | 84° | 86° | 75–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 89° | 87° | 83° | 93° | 90° | 87° | 83–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 84° | 87° | 86° | 92° | 88° | 78° | 78–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 88° | 87° | 85° | 88° | 90° | 79° | 79–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 90° | 89° | 89° | 91° | 90° | 86° | 86–91° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.