Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Aug 16?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 81° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 96° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.05 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. ICON ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-01 | — | 94° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 92–94° |
| 14d · 2026-08-02 | 86° | 91° | 81° | — | 96° | — | — | 81–96° |
| 13d · 2026-08-03 | 76° | 89° | 82° | — | 92° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-04 | 85° | 90° | 79° | — | 80° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 11d · 2026-08-05 | 96° | 83° | 83° | — | 101° | — | — | 83–101° |
| 10d · 2026-08-06 | 96° | 82° | 76° | — | 91° | — | — | 76–96° |
| 9d · 2026-08-07 | 96° | 96° | 98° | 77° | 87° | — | — | 77–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-08 | 92° | 93° | 100° | 80° | 85° | — | — | 80–100° |
| 7d · 2026-08-09 | 88° | 98° | 104° | 84° | 102° | — | — | 84–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-10 | 88° | 97° | 96° | 81° | 98° | 101° | 99° | 81–101° |
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 95° | 98° | 91° | 82° | 98° | 98° | 92° | 82–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 92° | 96° | 93° | 87° | 97° | 92° | 95° | 87–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 94° | 96° | 99° | 88° | 102° | 91° | 94° | 88–102° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 93° | 96° | 98° | 89° | 102° | 90° | 98° | 89–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 93° | 97° | 93° | 98° | 97° | 92° | 96° | 92–98° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.