Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Oct 26?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 56° to 58°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 65° against the BUF observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.6°. UKMO ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 60° | — | — | 45° | — | — | 45–60° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | — | 53° | 55° | — | 52° | — | — | 52–55° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | 56° | 58° | 58° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–58° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 52° | 52° | 59° | — | 74° | — | — | 52–74° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 62° | 66° | 69° | — | 65° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 63° | 47° | 61° | — | 50° | — | — | 47–63° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 66° | 63° | 58° | 61° | 57° | — | — | 57–66° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 55° | 58° | 63° | 63° | 56° | — | — | 55–63° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 56° | 68° | 61° | 65° | 65° | — | — | 56–68° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 67° | 59° | 62° | 63° | 63° | 63° | 62° | 59–67° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 66° | 65° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 64° | 63° | 63–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 62° | 62° | 58° | 64° | 65° | 60° | 62° | 58–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 58° | 63° | 61° | 65° | 62° | 60° | 63° | 58–65° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 59° | 62° | 62° | 65° | 65° | 60° | 64° | 59–65° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 63° | 62° | 63° | 63° | 63° | 63° | 60° | 60–63° |
| actual | 65° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.