Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Wed Oct 14?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 45° to 63°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 65° against the BUF observations — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 52° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 52–66° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 47° | 45° | 61° | — | 63° | — | — | 45–63° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 52° | 52° | 67° | — | 64° | — | — | 52–67° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 52° | 45° | 56° | — | 66° | — | — | 45–66° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 75° | 46° | 54° | — | 77° | — | — | 46–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 75° | 40° | 70° | — | 50° | — | — | 40–75° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 69° | 55° | 68° | 61° | 75° | — | — | 55–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 52° | 65° | 55° | 71° | 59° | — | — | 52–71° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 52° | 62° | 46° | 65° | 54° | — | — | 46–65° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 65° | 67° | 54° | 72° | 64° | 55° | 55° | 54–72° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 58° | 59° | 54° | 55° | 56° | 53° | 53–67° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 67° | 67° | 66° | 70° | 65° | 64° | 68° | 64–70° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 66° | 66° | 65° | 70° | 65° | 66° | 67° | 65–70° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 65° | 67° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 67° | 65–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 66° | 65° | 65° | 69° | 67° | 67° | 68° | 65–69° |
| actual | 65° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.