Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Oct 13?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 51° to 65°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 79° against the BUF observations, with 0.1 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 58° | — | — | 64° | — | — | 58–64° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 51° | 58° | 65° | — | 55° | — | — | 51–65° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 49° | 63° | 54° | — | 57° | — | — | 49–63° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 48° | 50° | 65° | — | 65° | — | — | 48–65° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 63° | 50° | 66° | — | 68° | — | — | 50–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 75° | 72° | 50° | — | 67° | — | — | 50–75° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 76° | 64° | 70° | 58° | 60° | — | — | 58–76° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 50° | 72° | 62° | 71° | — | — | 50–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 70° | 68° | 69° | 71° | 58° | — | — | 58–71° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 68° | 76° | 63° | 74° | 67° | 51° | 63° | 51–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 73° | 74° | 66° | 71° | 79° | 69° | 63° | 63–79° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 76° | 68° | 67° | 71° | 69° | 68° | 66° | 66–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 75° | 73° | 73° | 75° | 79° | 73° | 75° | 73–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 75° | 76° | 73° | 78° | 77° | 76° | 68° | 68–78° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 76° | 73° | 78° | 77° | 76° | 73° | 73–78° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.