Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sun Oct 11?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 46° to 53°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 62°. The day verified at 63° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 74° | — | — | 57° | — | — | 57–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 50° | 51° | 53° | — | 46° | — | — | 46–53° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 64° | 72° | 59° | — | 58° | — | — | 58–72° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 58° | 72° | 73° | — | 64° | — | — | 58–73° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 75° | 77° | 73° | — | 75° | — | — | 73–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 78° | 75° | 77° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–78° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 77° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 78° | — | — | 75–78° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 77° | 63° | 73° | 69° | 62° | — | — | 62–77° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 71° | 73° | 74° | 74° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 74° | 70° | 71° | 73° | 59° | 75° | 63° | 59–75° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 67° | 65° | 68° | 73° | 75° | 66° | 71° | 65–75° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 60° | 61° | 67° | 68° | 63° | 60° | 63° | 60–68° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 59° | 57° | 58° | 59° | 60° | 60° | 59° | 57–60° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 62° | 57° | 62° | 64° | 60° | 62° | 59° | 57–64° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 62° | 59° | 65° | 63° | 60° | 61° | 64° | 59–65° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.