Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Thu Oct 8?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Thu Oct 8 high anywhere from 55° to 68°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 66° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-23 | — | 60° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 60–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-24 | 68° | 56° | 55° | — | 58° | — | — | 55–68° |
| 13d · 2026-09-25 | 69° | 52° | 65° | — | 63° | — | — | 52–69° |
| 12d · 2026-09-26 | 62° | 64° | 62° | — | 62° | — | — | 62–64° |
| 11d · 2026-09-27 | 65° | 55° | 72° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-28 | 61° | 63° | 60° | — | 58° | — | — | 58–63° |
| 9d · 2026-09-29 | 67° | 66° | 62° | 68° | 67° | — | — | 62–68° |
| 8d · 2026-09-30 | 65° | 66° | 64° | 68° | 68° | — | — | 64–68° |
| 7d · 2026-10-01 | 72° | 68° | 63° | 64° | 68° | — | — | 63–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-02 | 68° | 70° | 62° | 66° | 68° | 64° | 65° | 62–70° |
| 5d · 2026-10-03 | 66° | 72° | 62° | 65° | 68° | 65° | 57° | 57–72° |
| 4d · 2026-10-04 | 66° | 66° | 63° | 61° | 68° | 62° | 66° | 61–68° |
| 3d · 2026-10-05 | 65° | 64° | 63° | 63° | 67° | 63° | 64° | 63–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-06 | 64° | 63° | 63° | 64° | 68° | 64° | 63° | 63–68° |
| 1d · 2026-10-07 | 64° | 63° | 60° | 66° | 66° | 63° | 62° | 60–66° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.