Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Oct 5?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 53° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 60°. The day verified at 61° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 61° | — | — | 54° | — | — | 54–61° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 66° | 53° | 62° | — | 74° | — | — | 53–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 69° | 54° | 67° | — | 65° | — | — | 54–69° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 57° | 57° | 62° | — | 58° | — | — | 57–62° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 57° | 77° | 56° | — | 72° | — | — | 56–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 65° | 78° | 56° | — | 79° | — | — | 56–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 60° | 65° | 65° | 62° | 66° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 60° | 61° | 60° | 58° | 62° | — | — | 58–62° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 59° | 57° | 56° | 58° | 61° | — | — | 56–61° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 56° | 54° | 56° | 54° | 57° | 54° | 54° | 54–57° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 56° | 56° | 59° | 60° | 58° | 57° | 60° | 56–60° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 57° | 56° | 58° | 56° | 58° | 56° | 60° | 56–60° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 58° | 58° | 59° | 58° | 62° | 58° | 59° | 58–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 59° | 59° | 58° | 59° | 62° | 60° | 59° | 58–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 60° | 59° | 58° | 60° | 61° | 60° | 60° | 58–61° |
| actual | 61° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.