Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sat Oct 3?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 58° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 64° against the BUF observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. ICON ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 74° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 71–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 65° | 64° | 58° | — | 66° | — | — | 58–66° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 61° | 76° | 67° | — | 87° | — | — | 61–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 64° | 58° | 71° | — | 72° | — | — | 58–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 68° | 64° | 78° | — | 75° | — | — | 64–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 65° | 63° | 64° | — | 66° | — | — | 63–66° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 62° | 83° | 65° | 68° | 80° | — | — | 62–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 65° | 72° | 63° | 70° | 82° | — | — | 63–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 63° | 69° | 63° | 61° | 54° | — | — | 54–69° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 67° | 64° | 63° | 63° | 58° | 65° | 59° | 58–67° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 66° | 64° | 63° | 56° | 66° | 62° | 64° | 56–66° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 65° | 64° | 62° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 63° | 62–65° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 64° | 62° | 63° | 64° | 63° | 61° | 63° | 61–64° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 64° | 62° | 63° | 66° | 63° | 64° | 62° | 62–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 63° | 63° | 64° | 65° | 63° | 61° | 63° | 61–65° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.