Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Sep 22?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 64° to 70°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 64° against the BUF observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 63° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 70° | 66° | 64° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–70° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 66° | 56° | — | 75° | — | — | 56–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 63° | 56° | 56° | — | 70° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 62° | 69° | 74° | — | 68° | — | — | 62–74° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 69° | 56° | 62° | — | 72° | — | — | 56–72° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 72° | 70° | 71° | 78° | 73° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 58° | 66° | 64° | 65° | 55° | — | — | 55–66° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 65° | 66° | 65° | 68° | 67° | — | — | 65–68° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 58° | 64° | 56° | 65° | 72° | 70° | 66° | 56–72° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 62° | 52° | 55° | 62° | 57° | 66° | 61° | 52–66° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 64° | 65° | 62° | 64° | 51° | 62° | 65° | 51–65° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 64° | 65° | 61° | 61° | 54° | 62° | 63° | 54–65° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 63° | 65° | 60° | 64° | 66° | 60° | 62° | 60–66° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 64° | 64° | 63° | 68° | 68° | 61° | 62° | 61–68° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.