Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Sep 21?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 64° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 59°. The day verified at 61° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 55° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 55–66° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 67° | 74° | 64° | — | 71° | — | — | 64–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 70° | 65° | 64° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–70° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 83° | 64° | 55° | — | 72° | — | — | 55–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 60° | 50° | 59° | — | 60° | — | — | 50–60° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 64° | 61° | 63° | — | 74° | — | — | 61–74° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 65° | 64° | 70° | 61° | 72° | — | — | 61–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 67° | 67° | 79° | 74° | 67° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 58° | 63° | 62° | 63° | 62° | — | — | 58–63° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 64° | 64° | 64° | 61° | 64° | 59° | 62° | 59–64° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 60° | 57° | 61° | 63° | 59° | 62° | 65° | 57–65° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 60° | 59° | 61° | 64° | 64° | 58° | 64° | 58–64° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 60° | 60° | 60° | 62° | 61° | 59° | 61° | 59–62° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 60° | 59° | 62° | 64° | 59° | 57° | 62° | 57–64° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 59° | 58° | 58° | 64° | 60° | 58° | 61° | 58–64° |
| actual | 61° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.