Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Sep 8?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 75° to 81°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 80° against the BUF observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-24 | — | 73° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 75° | 73° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 73–77° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 75° | 76° | 81° | — | 76° | — | — | 75–81° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 73° | 74° | 80° | — | 78° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 80° | 79° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 76° | 76° | — | 89° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 79° | 75° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 80° | 76° | 76° | 74° | — | — | 74–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 77° | 77° | 75° | 79° | 65° | — | — | 65–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 82° | 78° | 76° | 74° | 78° | — | 74–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 75° | 79° | 76° | 79° | 78° | 81° | 76° | 75–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 77° | 79° | 75° | 77° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 75–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 77° | 78° | 76° | 78° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 76–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 77° | 78° | 76° | 78° | 79° | 76° | 77° | 76–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 77° | 77° | 76° | 83° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 76–83° |
| 0d · 2026-09-08 | 76° | 77° | 77° | 82° | 79° | 78° | 78° | 76–82° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.