Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sat Sep 5?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 70° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 76° against the BUF observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.5°. ICON ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-21 | — | 71° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 66–71° |
| 14d · 2026-08-22 | 74° | 70° | 71° | — | 71° | — | — | 70–74° |
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 80° | 74° | 71° | — | 77° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 76° | 79° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–79° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 80° | 83° | — | 88° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 79° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 74° | 83° | 74° | 79° | 86° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 73° | 72° | 74° | 74° | 73° | — | — | 72–74° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 68° | 76° | 74° | 78° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 73° | 71° | 72° | 73° | 74° | 81° | 76° | 71–81° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 74° | 70° | 74° | 74° | 73° | 72° | 73° | 70–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 73° | 72° | 73° | 75° | 72° | 71° | 76° | 71–76° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 74° | 73° | 73° | 74° | 73° | 74° | 75° | 73–75° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 74° | 73° | 76° | 76° | 74° | 75° | 73–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 74° | 73° | 73° | 73–78° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.