Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Wed Sep 2?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
12 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 69° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 83° against the BUF observations, with 0.19 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-21 | 71° | 69° | 81° | — | 83° | — | — | 69–83° |
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 75° | 75° | 71° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 80° | 72° | 77° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 77° | 75° | 80° | 73° | 66° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 80° | 73° | 75° | 81° | 84° | — | — | 73–84° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 81° | 82° | 79° | 76° | 72° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 77° | 77° | 75° | 80° | 80° | 85° | 75–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 82° | 80° | 80° | 86° | 80° | 81° | 80–86° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 84° | 81° | 78° | 85° | 84° | 82° | 78–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 83° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 83° | 83° | 82–85° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 84° | 79° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 84° | 79–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 81° | 84° | 79° | 83° | 86° | 82° | 78° | 78–86° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.