Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Aug 31?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
10 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 78° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 73° against the BUF observations, with 0.51 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ICON ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 80° | 79° | 78° | — | 79° | — | — | 78–80° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 72° | 81° | 70° | 78° | 80° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 70° | 74° | 78° | 83° | 74° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 80° | 84° | 78° | 81° | 82° | — | — | 78–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 81° | 84° | 84° | 78° | 77° | 84° | 82° | 77–84° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 74° | 74° | 82° | 71° | 69° | 83° | 86° | 69–86° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 75° | 73° | 80° | 71° | 78° | 76° | 82° | 71–82° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 75° | 77° | 77° | 73° | 79° | 75° | 80° | 73–80° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 73° | 73° | 79° | 76° | 70° | 72° | 81° | 70–81° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 74° | 72° | 74° | 74° | 73° | 70° | 74° | 70–74° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.