Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sun Aug 30?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
9 days out, 5 models put Buffalo's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 72° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 70° against the BUF observations, with 0.14 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-21 | 76° | 79° | 72° | 73° | 87° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 76° | 73° | 73° | 78° | 76° | — | — | 73–78° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 75° | 78° | 78° | 79° | 66° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 79° | 79° | 76° | 81° | 81° | 71° | 71–81° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 79° | 79° | 81° | 76° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 76–81° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 81° | 79° | 78° | 76° | 72° | 76° | 78° | 72–81° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 79° | 81° | 76° | 78° | 78° | 75° | 80° | 75–81° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 72° | 70° | 77° | 81° | 67° | 76° | 79° | 67–81° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 70° | 69° | 76° | 77° | 70° | 71° | 75° | 69–77° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.