Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Fri Aug 7?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
12 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Fri Aug 7 high anywhere from 74° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 78° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.58 in of precipitation — rain.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-07-26 | 82° | 75° | 86° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 11d · 2026-07-27 | 86° | 80° | 80° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 10d · 2026-07-28 | 85° | 75° | 84° | — | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 9d · 2026-07-29 | 79° | 80° | 77° | 79° | 82° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 8d · 2026-07-30 | 78° | 83° | 78° | 76° | 83° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 7d · 2026-07-31 | 77° | 82° | 77° | 76° | 86° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 6d · 2026-08-01 | 78° | 79° | 74° | 78° | 85° | 82° | 81° | 74–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-02 | 79° | 81° | 77° | 74° | 78° | 80° | 79° | 74–81° |
| 4d · 2026-08-03 | 76° | 76° | 76° | 73° | 86° | 76° | 79° | 73–86° |
| 3d · 2026-08-04 | 77° | 74° | 78° | 75° | 87° | 76° | 86° | 74–87° |
| 2d · 2026-08-05 | 78° | 76° | 80° | 81° | 82° | 77° | 79° | 76–82° |
| 1d · 2026-08-06 | 76° | 79° | 75° | 77° | 81° | 76° | 85° | 75–85° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.