Was the forecast right for Boston on Thu Oct 22?
Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations
14 days out, 4 models put Boston's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 55° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 65° against the BOS observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 68° | — | — | 52° | — | — | 52–68° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 65° | 59° | 55° | — | 66° | — | — | 55–66° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 53° | 69° | — | 57° | — | — | 53–69° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 53° | 71° | 65° | — | 61° | — | — | 53–71° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 55° | 54° | 54° | — | 56° | — | — | 54–56° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 53° | 48° | — | 59° | — | — | 48–59° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 70° | 57° | 54° | 53° | 68° | — | — | 53–70° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 56° | 65° | 54° | 55° | 56° | — | — | 54–65° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 56° | 55° | 54° | 54° | 52° | — | — | 52–56° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 52° | 51° | 54° | 55° | 52° | 52° | 54° | 51–55° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 54° | 55° | 60° | 55° | 57° | 56° | 60° | 54–60° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 56° | 59° | 61° | 57° | 57° | 64° | 62° | 56–64° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 59° | 60° | 60° | 62° | 57° | 65° | 60° | 57–65° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 62° | 59° | 62° | 60° | 60° | 66° | 61° | 59–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 61° | 59° | 58° | 64° | 60° | 65° | 61° | 58–65° |
| actual | 65° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.