Was the forecast right for Boston on Fri Oct 16?
Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations
14 days out, 4 models put Boston's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 63° to 67°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 69° against the BOS observations, with 0.44 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 53° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 53–72° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 65° | 63° | 67° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–67° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 68° | 51° | 66° | — | 72° | — | — | 51–72° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 54° | 55° | 67° | — | 63° | — | — | 54–67° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 64° | 61° | 61° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–64° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 58° | 58° | 57° | — | 52° | — | — | 52–58° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 60° | 66° | 52° | 63° | 72° | — | — | 52–72° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 59° | 76° | 62° | 66° | 65° | — | — | 59–76° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 55° | 62° | 55° | 64° | 61° | — | — | 55–64° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 55° | 64° | 53° | 65° | 66° | 68° | 53° | 53–68° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 54° | 59° | 61° | 56° | 57° | 62° | 51° | 51–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 63° | 64° | 64° | 64° | 56° | 64° | 56–64° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 65° | 65° | 67° | 66° | 64° | 71° | 70° | 64–71° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 65° | 69° | 67° | 65° | 72° | 69° | 65–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 66° | 67° | 69° | 71° | 65° | 70° | 68° | 65–71° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.