Was the forecast right for Boston on Mon Oct 12?
Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations
14 days out, 4 models put Boston's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 56° to 65°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 71° against the BOS observations, with 0.1 in of precipitation — showers.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.4°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 63° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 62–63° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 56° | 64° | 65° | — | 65° | — | — | 56–65° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 60° | 75° | 76° | — | 67° | — | — | 60–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 76° | 68° | 73° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 77° | 74° | 71° | — | 76° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 76° | 81° | 70° | — | 78° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 62° | 64° | 71° | 66° | 51° | — | — | 51–71° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 62° | 71° | 76° | 64° | 66° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 67° | 62° | 67° | 66° | 65° | — | — | 62–67° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 63° | 64° | 64° | 71° | 62° | 62° | — | 62–71° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 62° | 62° | 70° | 63° | 63° | 72° | 63° | 62–72° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 65° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 61° | 69° | 64° | 61–69° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 66° | 65° | 63° | 62° | 63° | 71° | 65° | 62–71° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 66° | 67° | 64° | 67° | 65° | 71° | 69° | 64–71° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 66° | 68° | 68° | 70° | 69° | 69° | 68° | 66–70° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.