Was the forecast right for Boston on Fri Oct 2?
Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations
14 days out, 4 models put Boston's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 66° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 87° against the BOS observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.9°. GFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 61° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 61–67° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 69° | 74° | 66° | — | 71° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 67° | 57° | 71° | — | 61° | — | — | 57–71° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 72° | 66° | — | 69° | — | — | 66–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 70° | 68° | 62° | — | 64° | — | — | 62–70° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 72° | 62° | 70° | — | 65° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 77° | 73° | 75° | 69° | 68° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 81° | 78° | 76° | 70° | 76° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 69° | 82° | 76° | 73° | 76° | — | — | 69–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 74° | 75° | 73° | 74° | 69° | 78° | 72° | 69–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 80° | 83° | 72° | 75° | 82° | 83° | 77° | 72–83° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 82° | 86° | 83° | 73° | 83° | 77° | 84° | 73–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 81° | 86° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 83° | 77° | 77–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 81° | 85° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 80° | 82° | 80–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 81° | 84° | 82° | 86° | 80° | 84° | 83° | 80–86° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.