The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Thu Sep 10?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

13 days out, 4 models put Boston's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 70° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the BOS observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 3° cold.

13 days out the models said 70–87; it hit 87. GEM led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 3°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-26 68° 70° 68–70°
14d · 2026-08-27 68° 79° 72° 68–79°
13d · 2026-08-28 80° 87° 74° 70° 70–87°
12d · 2026-08-29 80° 83° 74° 88° 74–88°
11d · 2026-08-30 80° 69° 82° 78° 69–82°
10d · 2026-08-31 83° 84° 70° 70° 70–84°
9d · 2026-09-01 88° 62° 85° 60° 60–88°
8d · 2026-09-02 82° 77° 84° 83° 75° 75–84°
7d · 2026-09-03 79° 91° 87° 84° 85° 79–91°
6d · 2026-09-04 83° 81° 83° 80° 74° 94° 74–94°
5d · 2026-09-05 83° 86° 84° 81° 76° 84° 84° 76–86°
4d · 2026-09-06 81° 83° 84° 82° 84° 86° 84° 81–86°
3d · 2026-09-07 84° 84° 84° 82° 84° 84° 84° 82–84°
2d · 2026-09-08 84° 88° 84° 87° 86° 83° 84° 83–88°
1d · 2026-09-09 84° 87° 84° 88° 86° 85° 85° 84–88°
0d · 2026-09-10 85° 87° 85° 87° 84° 84° 86° 84–87°
actual 87°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.