Was the forecast right for Boston on Thu Sep 10?
Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations
13 days out, 4 models put Boston's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 70° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the BOS observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 68° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 68–70° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 68° | 79° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 68–79° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 87° | 74° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–87° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 83° | 74° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 69° | 82° | — | 78° | — | — | 69–82° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 84° | 70° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 88° | 62° | 85° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 77° | 84° | 83° | 75° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 91° | 87° | 84° | 85° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 80° | 74° | 94° | — | 74–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 86° | 84° | 81° | 76° | 84° | 84° | 76–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 81° | 83° | 84° | 82° | 84° | 86° | 84° | 81–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 82–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 84° | 88° | 84° | 87° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 83–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 84° | 87° | 84° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 85° | 84–88° |
| 0d · 2026-09-10 | 85° | 87° | 85° | 87° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 84–87° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.