The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Wed Sep 9?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

13 days out, 4 models put Boston's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 69° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 76° against the BOS observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.

AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. GEM ran 6° hot.

13 days out the models said 69–90; it hit 76. AIFS led (off 1.0°F); GEM ran 6°F hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-25 74° 77° 74–77°
14d · 2026-08-26 71° 77° 76° 71–77°
13d · 2026-08-27 69° 81° 90° 75° 69–90°
12d · 2026-08-28 76° 93° 81° 76° 76–93°
11d · 2026-08-29 79° 70° 76° 94° 70–94°
10d · 2026-08-30 80° 69° 70° 74° 69–80°
9d · 2026-08-31 78° 84° 79° 77° 77–84°
8d · 2026-09-01 79° 73° 76° 77° 60° 60–79°
7d · 2026-09-02 76° 89° 76° 67° 74° 67–89°
6d · 2026-09-03 69° 82° 74° 76° 74° 88° 69–88°
5d · 2026-09-04 77° 81° 77° 75° 81° 73° 81° 73–81°
4d · 2026-09-05 77° 78° 76° 76° 79° 84° 77° 76–84°
3d · 2026-09-06 76° 77° 80° 75° 77° 71° 84° 71–84°
2d · 2026-09-07 76° 79° 80° 81° 80° 78° 83° 76–83°
1d · 2026-09-08 75° 78° 81° 84° 76° 79° 81° 75–84°
0d · 2026-09-09 75° 79° 79° 82° 78° 79° 81° 75–82°
actual 76°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.