The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Tue Sep 8?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

13 days out, 4 models put Boston's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 74° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 81° against the BOS observations — cloudy.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.8°. GFS ran 4° cold.

13 days out the models said 74–88; it hit 81. ICON led (off 0.8°F); GFS ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-24 78° 88° 78–88°
14d · 2026-08-25 80° 75° 88° 75–88°
13d · 2026-08-26 77° 88° 88° 74° 74–88°
12d · 2026-08-27 74° 98° 85° 72° 72–98°
11d · 2026-08-28 78° 95° 76° 81° 76–95°
10d · 2026-08-29 78° 71° 73° 83° 71–83°
9d · 2026-08-30 79° 70° 69° 70° 69–79°
8d · 2026-08-31 78° 79° 75° 73° 79° 73–79°
7d · 2026-09-01 78° 80° 68° 76° 69° 68–80°
6d · 2026-09-02 75° 81° 82° 74° 80° 81° 74–82°
5d · 2026-09-03 74° 81° 81° 75° 67° 84° 76° 67–84°
4d · 2026-09-04 78° 81° 80° 74° 76° 83° 81° 74–83°
3d · 2026-09-05 77° 79° 80° 77° 74° 77° 81° 74–81°
2d · 2026-09-06 78° 80° 82° 82° 79° 80° 81° 78–82°
1d · 2026-09-07 77° 78° 80° 82° 74° 80° 79° 74–82°
0d · 2026-09-08 77° 79° 79° 82° 77° 80° 77° 77–82°
actual 81°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.