The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Mon Sep 7?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

13 days out, 4 models put Boston's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 72° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 82° against the BOS observations — partly cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 6° cold.

13 days out the models said 72–90; it hit 82. GEM led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-23 65° 79° 65–79°
14d · 2026-08-24 67° 73° 70° 67–73°
13d · 2026-08-25 83° 72° 86° 90° 72–90°
12d · 2026-08-26 78° 83° 83° 68° 68–83°
11d · 2026-08-27 78° 96° 83° 68° 68–96°
10d · 2026-08-28 77° 79° 68° 69° 68–79°
9d · 2026-08-29 76° 68° 70° 70° 68–76°
8d · 2026-08-30 77° 72° 70° 72° 70° 70–77°
7d · 2026-08-31 73° 72° 68° 73° 70° 68–73°
6d · 2026-09-01 74° 73° 79° 75° 80° 78° 73–80°
5d · 2026-09-02 78° 75° 78° 74° 70° 75° 73° 70–78°
4d · 2026-09-03 77° 77° 76° 74° 78° 80° 73° 73–80°
3d · 2026-09-04 75° 76° 77° 75° 76° 81° 80° 75–81°
2d · 2026-09-05 76° 77° 78° 80° 76° 80° 79° 76–80°
1d · 2026-09-06 76° 76° 78° 82° 76° 79° 78° 76–82°
0d · 2026-09-07 76° 76° 78° 82° 76° 80° 79° 76–82°
actual 82°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.